World Economic Forum

Hello from the Swiss Alps! It’s rainy and warm here — decidedly not skiing weather. Politicians and business leaders have traded their snow boots and gloves for sneakers and umbrellas as they gather for the first in-person World Economic Forum since the Covid-19 pandemic started. At this year’s event, which was delayed due to the Omicron variant, there are fewer execs and heads of state from top economies, and the notorious party scene is expected to be more muted. After all, who wants to be seen popping champagne when the global economy could face a “confluence of calamities,” as International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva put it this morning? “As policymakers and business leaders head to Davos, the global economy faces perhaps its biggest test since the Second World War,” warned Georgieva, who will speak on multiple panels in the coming days. The global slowdown in growth is one big topic on Monday. The combined economic output of the G7 countries shrank by 0.1% in the first quarter of the year, compared with the previous three-month period, the OECD said in a new report. Jason Furman, who previously served as President Barack Obama's top economic adviser, told me that the United States "is in the least bad shape of any economy in the world." Consumers are worried about inflation, but they still have a big pot of savings, and spending remains strong. But he does think the risk of recession climbs in 2023, as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to try to bring inflation down. "I'm more worried about recession risks about one year and further in the future," he said on the sidelines of the forum. "I think the Fed should be trying for a soft landing. I don't know that they'll succeed." But most attention at the conference remains trained on the war in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered the forum’s opening speech by video to a packed room. He thanked attendees for their support of Ukraine, but asked them to go further, calling for an embargo on Russian oil exports, sanctions on all Russian banks and more funding for the military as well as reconstruction. "I would only wish you not lose this feeling of unity," he said. "This creates this punch that the management of the Russian Federation fears the most." One talker: Russian officials and oligarchs, long a fixture of Davos, are notably absent this year. The clearest sign of Moscow’s new pariah status? The venue used by Russia to promote itself at past forums has been rebranded as the Russian War Crimes House. Ukraine House, meanwhile, has a full roster of events, including panels with top Ukrainian officials, cultural leaders and the actor Liev Schreiber.