Republican Prez , 21st Century Herbert Hoover and Jefferson Davis

"What's Coming Is WORSE Than A Recession" - Steve Hanke Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, discusses recession odds, the recent failed Treasury auction, and the outlook for inflation. Share this video with a friend if you find it useful! <


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where we're going with this it relates to the stock market because if the slowdown occurs like I think it will and and still some people now are talking a little bit about the probability of a recession i think it's over 90% this year so as a result of a slowdown of course sales go down and profits go down the Smoot Holly tariff was announced in March of 1930 and then the stock market Search in video : the Smoot Holly tariff was announced in March of 1930 and then the stock market started really crashing until July of 1932 it hit a low that it was 83% lower than it was when the tariffs were announced and let's get back to the earnings thing a little bit and withrecession sales go down and as sales go down profits go down earnings go down and the consensus on earnings was 15% growth this year then they brought it down to 13% and most recently they brought it down to 10% i think it's going to be zero i've always said I thought the consensus is too optimistic and what does a tariff i've always said I thought the consensus is too optimistic and what does a tariff do a tariff is a tax on international transactions so it drives a wedge into those profits or those benefits or the surplus resulting from the trade and it takes it away like any tax and puts it in the government's pocketbook so that's why earnings go down the trade aspect it tariffs take away some of the surplus 1:30 generated by international transactions 1:33 it's just that simple the money supply 1:36 is the fuel for the economy and when the 1:39 money supply contracts like it's done 1:41 since the summer of 2022 that slowdown 1:44 gets transmitted into the economy and 1:47 the economy slows down that's why I keep <


the economy slows down that's why I keep 1
using this expression well a slowdown is baked in the cake and it has nothing to do with whether who's president or any of those things it's just a function of what the money supply is doing so we had that coming on us this year most people by the way haven't seen this coming at all because they don't pay any attention<



by the way haven't seen this coming at all because they don't pay any attention to the money supply or the quantity theory of money and then all of a sudden we get a second aspect coming in and that's the Trump tariff and that is really throwing a lot of sand in the 2:20 gear shall we say and that will just 2:22 make the slowdown even worse and 2:24 probably will have a technical recession 2:27 and so that's why people are concerned 2:30 the other reason is that something I 2:32 call regime uncertainty and that is that 2:34 when you get tremendous activism in a 2:38 government where they're changing kind really throwing a lot of sand in the gear shall we say and that will just