Friday, June 23, 2023

Market euphoria in early June, spurred on by a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, is well behind us now. Central bank leaders in the US and across the globe delivered a clear message to markets this week: We're not done hiking. Wall Street didn't take the message well. US stocks are on track to notch a losing week and the Nasdaq is on pace to end an eight-week winning streak. What's happening: It's been just over a week since the Federal Reserve paused its 14-month regimen of interest rate hikes to fight inflation. Now, it appears that pause will be very short lived. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House and Senate this week that the central bank is far from reaching its 2% inflation target and expects to hike rates further. "The strong majority of the committee believes that it will be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again once or twice by the end of the year," Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. He made similar comments on Wednesday to the House Financial Services Committee. The Bank of England, meanwhile, surprised investors by raising interest rates in the UK by an outsized half of a percentage point. Analysts had expected a smaller move. In a statement, Bank of England policymakers said that economic data showed that inflation was proving persistent as the labor market remained tight and consumer demand strong. Central banks had been making smaller interest rate moves as inflation began to ease off of recent highs. However, that no longer seems to be the case. Elsewhere in Europe, central banks in Norway and Switzerland also hiked rates to decade-high levels on Thursday. Officials in Norway said rates will "most likely be raised further in August." Switzerland also indicated that more tightening is coming. Why it matters: In the United States, markets have been enjoying a bull run — largely fueled by a boom in tech stocks, which are particularly sensitive to interest rates and inflation. News of a return to hawkish monetary policy could put an end to all of that. Stocks rebounded slightly on Thursday, but "investors seem to be slow to come to grips" with the likelihood that rates will be higher for longer, said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo. "Rising rates weigh on both economic growth—the Fed wants and needs to see slower growth in demand—and financial markets," wrote analysts at financial firm Commonwealth. "This potential headwind will be something to watch closely for the rest of the year."

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