GOP faces demographic doomsday; will be abolished in the next ten years

#donaldtrump #community #ukraine #russia #media #joebiden #gop #rondesantis #dailykoselections #elections #republicans #education #florida #science #culture #debtceiling #congress #openthread #kevinmccarthy #immigration #war #fascism #cnn #labor #rescued #election2024 #climatechange #law #history #nationalsecurity GOP faces demographic doomsday Kerry Eleveld, author by Kerry Eleveld for Daily Kos Daily Kos Staff Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 12:07:19p EDT 353 Comments 353 NEW Recommend Story 336 2C135BY Atlanta, USA. 09th June, 2020. An examination by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution found that human error, equipment failure and a complicated, multicomputer voting system combined to create chaos that left some Georgia voters waiting as long as eight hours to cast ballots during June 9, 2020, statewide primary elections. Credit: John Spink/Atlanta Journal-Constitution/TNS/Alamy Live News Immediately after Barack Obama's historic presidential win in 2008, progressive pundits and analysts flooded the news with commentary declaring a demographic doomsday for Republicans. The Obama coalition of non-white voters, single women, and young voters seemed formidable, durable, and portended a demographic destiny that would relegate Republicans to permanent electoral ruin. Ultimately, however, the coalition that delivered big for Obama in ‘08 and 2012 yielded weak turnout in both the 2010 and 2014 midterms and proved unsustainable in presidential contests for anyone not named Barack Obama. Now, new analysis of census data is breathing new life into those premature GOP obits: Last cycle, the recently minted Trump-era Republican base of white voters without a college degree "declined in 2022 as a share of both actual and eligible voters," writes CNN analyst Ronald Brownstein. The census data study, conducted by political scientist Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, provides a slight tweak to the original Obama coalition wrecking ball theory. Instead of the Democratic coalition joining forces to dominate elections, the white voters Republicans now depend on are simply shrinking as a share of both the voting pool and those who actually cast a ballot. It's all part and parcel of the same changing demographic dynamic—white voters becoming less dominant—but it appears the Republican side of the equation is now greatly accelerating the demographic shift. Part of the reason for that is likely the fact that between 2008 and 2022, Republicans began trading in white suburbanites as their staple base voters for an older and sometimes less dependable voting block, white non-college educated voters. It was a bad trade: While the vote share of non-college whites is receding, the vote share of people of color and whites with a college degree is increasing. “This is a trend that is baked into the demographic change of the country, so [it] is likely going to accelerate over the next ten years,” explained McDonald, author of the recent book “From Pandemic to Insurrection: Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election.” Brownstein points out that despite their declining shares nationwide, white voters without a college degree still account for more of the electorate in key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They are also a dominant force in red states where Senate Democrats face their most daunting challenges: protecting seats in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. But even in those GOP strongholds, the white non-college voting share is shrinking, and McDonald's analysis suggests the downward trend could accelerate in 2024, even as the voting share of Democratic-friendly demographics increases. “We are right now at the teetering edge of the influence of the baby boomers,” McDonald added. “They are just starting to enter those twilight years in their turnout rates, while other [more diverse] groups are maturing. So we are right at that cusp – that critical point of where things are going to start changing.” And here's where next year’s presidential contest gets really sticky for Republicans: Turnout of non-college whites was actually fairly strong in 2022 even though their voting share declined. That's because despite turning out at high levels, non-college whites are simply dwindling as a share of the overall voting pool. What makes that dynamic even more ominous for Republicans in 2024 is the fact that turnout among voters of color fell in 2022. Since Black voters historically turn out at relatively high levels in presidential years, as they did in 2020, the lackluster GOP showing in the midterms could be compounded next year by high turnout among Black voters, provided Biden-Harris and the DNC can re-energize this core base. Tom Bonier, chief executive of pro-Democratic data firm TargetSmart, imagined that declining vote share among non-college whites in a year where their turnout was relatively strong “has to be a huge cause for concern for Republicans at this point." Bonier said it's quite possible Republicans could see an even "steeper decline" in vote share among non-college whites next year and thus a further decline in their electoral influence. The entire dynamic suggests that Republicans could be reaching an electoral ceiling, or perhaps already have. In fact, former U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida believes Trumpism "peaked" in 2016, noting Republican losses in 2018, 2020, and their barely squeaking out a House majority in 2022 despite a promised red tsunami. Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher puts Trump's ceiling at 46% in 2024—seemingly an opening for Democrats. In 2016, however, Trump beat Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the electoral college despite winning just 46% of the vote to her 48%. The remaining 6% of the vote—roughly 8 million votes—went to third-party candidates, including .5% to write-ins. Whatever demographic constraints weigh down Republicans in 2024, Democratic turnout—particularly among younger voters—remains the biggest wild card in the equation. A third-party candidacy sponsored by a group such as No Labels could also upend the entire landscape. But Republicans potentially facing a demographically driven ceiling next year provides Democrats with a golden opportunity to deliver on the fate so many predicted would haunt the GOP a decade ago. Jennifer Fernandez Ancona from Way to Win joins Markos and Kerry to talk about the new messaging the Democratic Party’s national candidates are employing going into 2024. Ancona was right about the messaging needed to win the midterms, and we think she’s right about 2024. This just doesn't cut it anymore: Unlike other media outlets, Daily Kos doesn't rely only on advertising to cover our budget needs. We rely on three sources of revenue; advertising, community fundraising and list building, in which Democratic and progressive campaigns pay for the opportunity to make their case to our readers over email. Unfortunately, so far this year, both advertising and our list building efforts have been falling behind our needed projections. We have already made deep financial cuts and are making other changes that we hope will improve our revenue. However, we will not see the impacts of those changes for a few more months. At this time, we are relying more and more on the support of readers and activists to cover our expenses. Can you support the work of Daily Kos by making a donation of $5 today? 19 TAGS #2016 #Blackvoters #censusdata #Demographics #DonaldTrump #MichaelMcDonald #Midterms #Presidential #Turnout #WhiteVoters #YoungVoters #votersofcolor +7 More 1 GROUP REPUBLISHED Daily Kos Was this story worth reading? Recommending stories helps us decide which stories are most important to show our readers. Recommend Story 336 353Comments Join the Discussion This Is How Much A Walk-In Shower Should Cost You In Ohio in 2023 Walk-In Showers That Are Affordable For Everyone, And They're Installed In As Little As 1 Day With A Lifetime Warranty. SafeShowerUSA | Sponsored Learn More Doctors Baffled: Simple Tip Relieves Years of Arthritis (Try Tonight) Care for joints | Sponsored Try Now Your Ancestors Might Be Far From What You'd Expect : Take A Look Genetics Digest | Sponsored Relieve Tinnitus by Doing This Once Daily - It's Genius Healthy Guru | Sponsored Simple Japanese Trick for Nail Infection Healthy Guru | Sponsored Read More © Kos Media, LLC Site content may be used for any purpose without explicit permission unless otherwise specified. "Kos" and "Daily Kos" are registered trademarks of Kos Media, LLC. Privacy Policy DAILY KOS Front Page Elections Radio Comics Podcasts RSS ABOUT Terms Rules of the Road DMCA Copyright Notice Do Not Sell My Info Privacy About Us Masthead Ethics Contact Us ADVERTISING Advertising Overview CAREERS Jobs MERCHANDISE Shirts GET OUT THE VOTE Ways to get involved in the upcoming elections Daily Kos moves in solidarity with the Black community. LEARN MORE