Consider what Donald Trump
said before this war began. And what is
actually happening now? Trump campaigned
and governed on a specific promise. No
new wars. He said it repeatedly in
different formulations across two years
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of public statements. <
He would end
conflicts, not start them. He would
bring troops home, not deploy them. He
would make deals, not launch operations.<
He called the leaders who started wars
would make deals, not launch operations.
He called the leaders who started wars
reckless. He described himself as the
9:58
peace president.<
On February 28th, 2026,
the United States and Israel jointly
launched what has now become the largest
10:05
American military operation in the
1
Middle East since the 2003 invasion of
Iraq. 12 days later, US soldiers are
dead. US bases across six countries have
Iraq. 12 days later, US soldiers are
dead. US bases across six countries have
been struck by Iranian missiles and
drones. The US Navy has confirmed it
cannot protect commercial shipping
through the straight of Hormuz. And US
interceptor stockpiles are being drawn
from allied nations in Asia to sustain
an active war theater that was described
publicly as a short-term excursion.<
<
Every major commitment Trump made about
this war has been contradicted by the
war itself. He said Iranian capabilities
would be destroyed quickly. Iran's
missile launch rate dropped
significantly in the first week. And
then Hezbollah's precision strikes on
central Israel escalated, opening a new
axis of attack that US air power cannotsignificantly in the first week.
directly address without risking a
10:48
full-scale ground war in Lebanon.<
On top
of the air war in Iran, he said the Navy
would ensure oil supply lines remained
protected. The US Navy acknowledged
publicly that it cannot guarantee
protection for commercial vesselspublicly that it cannot guarantee
protection
transiting pthe Straight of Hormuz
against a combination of naval mines,
drone boats, and submarine threats in a
straight where a $500 naval mine can
threaten a $44 billion warship. He said
the war would be over very soon. Israeli
ministers quoted in the Times of Israel
said regime change in Iran may takeministers quoted in the Times of Israel
said regime change in Iran may take a
year. The gap between those two
timelines is not a difference of
opinion. It is a difference between the
war Trump described publicly and the war
that is actually being fought. <
That gap
matters enormously because the Israeli
government has now absorbed thepossibility that Trump may announce an
American exit from the war at any
moment. Israeli media has reported this
11:36
explicitly. Senior Israeli officials are
11:38
discussing the scenario in which the
United States, facing market pressure,
domestic political constraints, and a
military operation with no clear end
1
point announces a unilateral withdrawal.
If that happens, Israel would be left
facing Iran, Hezbollah, and potentially
the Houthis without the American air
power, interceptor resupply, and naval
presence that has been the foundation of
its defense since February 28th. That is
not a theoretical risk. It is the
central strategic anxiety of the Israeli
government right now. And it arrives at
a moment when the civilian situation
inside Israel has no precedent in the
country's recent history.<
BBC analysis
described the situation as a partial
lockdown. A word that the Israeli
government has not used, but that the
physical reality supports. Streets
empty, shops closed, beaches shut.empty, shops closed, beaches shut. A
country of 9.5 million people
effectively suspended in a war posture,
unable to maintain normal economic
activity, unable to sleep through the
night, unable to trust that the shelter
they run to will protect them after
Hezbollah demonstrated that missiles can
arrive without warning. The economic
consequences are already documented.arrive without warning. <
Workers across Israel reported income
losses even before this war began after
two years of conflict with Hamas and
Hezbollah since October 2023. Those
losses are now compounding in real time.
Airlines have no schedule. Tourism does
not exist. Foreign investment is paused.
The 2026 state budget has not beenAirlines have no schedule. Tourism does
not exist.
The 2026 state budget has not been
passed. And if it is not passed by March
31st, the Israeli government falls by
its own constitutional rules. <
Iran
calculated all of this before the war
began. The IRGC's strategic documents
confirmed through intelligence reporting
were explicit. The goal was not to
defeat Israel militarily in the short
term. The goal was to make Israeli
society unsustainable at war. To drain
its interceptors, destroy its warning
infrastructure, empty its streets,
collapse its economy, divide it from its
1
American patron, and open enough
simultaneous fronts that no single
military response could address allthem. On day 12th, that strategy is
running exactly as Iran designed it. The
Houthis are on the threshold. The Red
Sea is the last major shipping corridor
still open. If it closes, the oil supply
mathematics of the global economy become
a crisis that no G7 reserve release
covering approximately 10 to 12 days of
global demand can bridge. Israel cannot
manage this alone. America is already in
<
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