So there the current director of OM doesn't know what the costs are. You're you're entering and engaging in an activity where you don't even know what the costs are. Now that's just illogical. You always calculate the benefits and costs of something before you do it if you're logical.So basically bottom line point is that from an economic point of view, the Trump administration is just flying blind. They they don't know what they're doing.

cost of the Afghan adventure was $6.5 trillion. Now the that that's the military cost, the reconstruction cost, the interest cost and and etc etc etc. <



Now those are big numbers Mario. You got to always put numbers like that into context. And and one context is that we're spending the topline budget item in the United States of Social Security. It's 1.5 trillion. So the the cost of 1:55 the Afghan war was 4.3 times larger than 2:00 the Social Security annual budget.


And by the way, it's interesting. Next year, 2:06 if if passed, there'll be a $1.5 trillion line item for the defense2:06 if if passed, there'll be a $1.5 trillion line item for the defense 2:11 department. They're going to increase that from 1.1 to 1.5. 2:17 So, you've got essentially about 40% 2:22 or a little over 40% of the total US budget will be consumed by the defense department and social security. Almost 2:30 half just roughly.




So then then if you move on to the that that tiny episode of course was Afghan Afghanistan.<



Let's move to Iraq.And if you if you look at that they said originally that the direct cost not the indirect the budget cost what would those be and they said it would be between 50 and 60 billion. Remember that department. They're going to increaseindirect the budget cost what would those be and they said it would be between 50 and 60 billion. Remember that was going to be a cakewalk. Paul Paul Wolitz told us that was going to be a cakewalk at the time. <




It turned out that the total costs the direct cost 3:05 of the Iraq war were 50,000 times greater than that. <




So there the current director of OM doesn't know what the costs are. You're you're entering and engaging in an activity where you don't even know what the costs are. Now that's just illogical. You always calculate the benefits and costs of something before you do it if you're logical. <



So , basically bottom line point is that from an economic point of view, the Trump administration is just flying blind. They they don't know what they're doing. 3:46<




But we are at a ceasefire. You you what what are your thoughts on the state of the ceasefire right now? Does that 3:53 change your predictions much? Because the markets are looking pretty optimistic. Oh, that doesn't change my 3:58 view at all. Um because uh not not 4:06 the it's a it's a little bit of a charade in the sense that where where is this thing all written down? Who's 4:12 agreed to what? It's it's a little like the tariffs