Tuesday's election in Wisconsin showed just how dangerous suburban trends are getting for Republicans

Tuesday's election in Wisconsin showed just how dangerous suburban trends are getting for Republicans David Nir, author by David Nir Daily Kos Staff Wednesday, April 05, 2023 at 4:52:44p EDT 54 Comments 54 NEW Recommend Story 174 Series of maps of selected election results in the Milwaukee metro area for statewide elections in Wisconsin from 2012 to 2023 In few places has the flight of suburban voters from the Republican Party during the era of Donald Trump been as vividly showcased as in the three counties that surround Milwaukee—an exodus that reached new heights on Tuesday night when progressive Judge Janet Protasiewicz achieved a resounding victory in her quest to join the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Those populous counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—are so well-known as the top bastion of GOP support in the state that they even have a collective nickname, the "WOW" counties, that signifies their strong tendency to vote together. For generations, the WOW counties were crucial building blocks for any Republican hoping to win statewide: Since the height of the New Deal, they supported a Democrat for president just once (Lyndon Johnson, during his 1964 landslide) and often gave GOP candidates margins of 30% or more. And high levels of voter participation, thanks to relatively high levels of income and education, allowed them to punch above their weight statewide. Top Stories Clarence Thomas has repeatedly broken one of the few ethics laws that apply to the Supreme Court CLICK TO READ Dramatic photos show how storms filled California reservoirsUkraine Update: Melitopol turns out to be a very bad place for Russia to park a trainThe Wisconsin Supreme Court election wasn't the only win Tuesday for Badger State liberalsIdaho governor signs controversial 'abortion trafficking' bill into law Clarence Thomas hasrepeatedly broken one of the few ethics laws that apply to the Supreme Court Sign This Petition Sign the petition: Stop Republican Gerrymandering! Not in US? By signing this petition with email, you agree to receive periodic email updates on offers and activism opportunities from Daily Kos. You may unsubscribe at any time. Daily Kos privacy policy and terms and conditions. But those very features have led to a sharp diminishing in the WOW counties' status as a redoubtable Republican stronghold. As well-educated, well-off voters have fled the GOP nationwide, so too have they in suburban Wisconsin. While these three counties still back Republican and conservative candidates for office, they've been doing so by smaller and smaller margins. Tuesday's election for Supreme Court saw the smallest such margin this century: Just 59% of voters backed Dan Kelly, the conservative choice, compared with 41% who supported Protasiewicz. That 18-point spread was just about half as large as George W. Bush's performance in both of his White House bids, and smaller still than Trump's 23-point win. At the same time, Milwaukee County has similarly shifted to the left: Protasiewicz dominated on Tuesday, carrying the county by 46 points, far wider than, say, John Kerry's 33-point win in 2004 and even bigger than Biden's 43-point victory. While the county is mostly made up of the eponymous city, a sizable swath is suburban, too, and has been subject to similar patterns. Collectively, as illustrated in the map at the top of this post, these four counties, which together make up the Milwaukee metropolitan area, now represent a huge problem for Wisconsin Republicans. In 2014, a GOP high point, then-Gov. Scott Walker won the region by 7 points on his way to reelection. Less than a decade later, Protasiewicz prevailed by 13 points, a massive 20-point shift. It's worth noting that the Supreme Court race was officially nonpartisan, and progressive candidates have often done much better in such contests in the Trump era than their Democratic counterparts in partisan elections. (Biden, for instance, carried Wisconsin by less than a point; Protasiewicz's margin stands at 11 points.) But Supreme Court outcomes in Wisconsin are now almost perfectly aligned with partisan ideologies, saddling Republicans with the burden of figuring out how to reverse this trend. As they have elsewhere, Republicans have enjoyed increased success in rural parts of the state, but as populations plateau or decline in these areas, it becomes increasingly difficult for them to make up for losses in suburbia. In addition, affluent suburbanites tend to vote at higher rates, which means they're more apt to participate in oddly timed elections, like those for Supreme Court in Wisconsin, which always take place in the spring. Protasiewicz's victory is by no means a guarantee of future Democratic success in the Badger State, where statewide elections are usually close affairs and partisan contests are regularly won by Republicans (including Sen. Ron Johnson just last year). But if the GOP keeps on its present course, and in particular remains an implacable foe of abortion rights, then it remains at serious risk of seeing more blowouts like Tuesday's. Progressives scored a monumental victory in Wisconsin Tuesday night when Janet Protasiewicz flipped a pivotal seat on the state Supreme Court, and we've got plenty to say about it on this week's episode of The Downballot. Not only are the electoral implications deeply worrisome for Republicans, the court's new liberal majority has the chance to revive democracy in the Badger State by restoring abortion rights and striking down gerrymandered GOP maps. It truly is a new day—and one we've long awaited—in Wisconsin. We're also delving into the fascinating politics of Alaska with our guest this week, former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Jonathan recounts his unlikely journey to the state House after winning a huge upset while still in college before explaining how Democrats, independents, and even a few Republicans forged a remarkable cross-partisan governing coalition. We also get an on-the-ground view of what Mary Peltola's stunning special election victory last year looked like to Alaska Democrats. Thank you for your support of Daily Kos. Media outlets shed 28,637 jobs last year alone. That's not just journalists, but fact-checkers, editors, and administrative staff. Advertising dollars have been gobbled up by Big Tech and cash-strapped outlets are being bought and sold to the highest bidder. Daily Kos is different. We don't have corporate backers that are only in it for the bottom line. We are primarily accountable to readers like you because donations from readers like you are our biggest source of income.Want to keep it that way? Click here to donate now. 5 TAGS #Elections #Milwaukee #Recommended #Wisconsin #DailyKosElections 3 GROUPS REPUBLISHED Daily Kos Elections Daily Kos Badger State Progressive Was this story worth reading? Recommending stories helps us decide which stories are most important to show our readers. 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