Trumpy's urging Russia to invade Europe (?!) is losing him a bunch of Republican votes , too. Morning Joe just reported that only 20% of polled Americans agree with breaking with NATO allies ; gee ya think. If Haley somehow becomes nominee Trump will pull his fanatics from Haley , run as an Independent or something. High likelihood that Biden will landslide either one . Main concern is that he brings the Senate with him. Senate is Dems biggest electoral weakness . Hopefully Republican Senate candidates tying themselves to Trumpy ( or breaking with him) will defeat them in key cases . Damned if they do go with Trump; damned if they don't. That's been my prediction of the long term dynamic since 2016 if we could beat Trump in 2020; and we did beat Trump in 2020. So , Republicans have been in a damned if they do and damned if they don't bind , dilemma since 2020; because staying with him has caused them to lose elections majorly since 2018 -2023 ; and if they split with him he'll take a huge chunk of their voters , most of their voters away. Losing with him , will lose worse without him ;which is why they stick with him; which hopefully will save the Senate for us.

Key is a criminal conviction; a significant percentage of _Republicans _ say they won't vote for Trumpy if criminally convicted; that would be ballgame for sure . But I think he's gonna lose even without that. Number 1 factor being white suburban women protesting Republican anti-abortion policy . That's added on to Biden already winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania last time. May put North Carolina in play. Alabama Supreme Court just declared frozen embryos are children (!) That will get more suburban white women votes because of the threat that Republicans would make that a national law. There will be a trickle of stories of women forced births in red states in the months leading to November; everyone of them will be the basis for a gut wrenching commercial in battleground states .