Does Trump have chance of winning the Presidency ?
CB: You start from Obama got the majority last time. No reason to think that majority for Democrats doesn't remain ; it has probably grown because youth and Latina/o proportion of population continued to grow over last 4 years . Also, Trump is repelling from the Republican Party a significant minority , the sort of blue bloods, old money, and their retinues, Elder Bush/Romney types ; by Trump turning the RP into a sort of white trash party. Trump is also firing up a lot of Democrats against him , guaranteeing they will turnout to vote against him. Trump's starting campaign statement was white supremacist anti-Latino, the hottest voting population in America . It was like a suicide political move. At the time , I thought , this guy is fake, because he is purposely trying to lose . Everybody knows Republicans can't win if they don't get the Latina/o vote. Why would he shoot himself like that if he was really trying to win in November 2016.
2016 Presidential race will rhyme with 1964: landslide for the Democrats. Retake the Senate. Win 5-4 majority on Supreme Court. Reverse all of Reaganism and more: socialism with American characteristics .